In this MarketFoolery podcast, host Mac Greer is abutting by analyst Aaron Bush to dig into a leash account items. First, Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) (NASDAQ:FOX) has appear aback with a new bid to buy the 61% of Sky that it doesn’t already own, acquisitive to accumulate it out of the easily of Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA).
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Next, Elon Musk says Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will abstain China’s abundant tariffs on alien cars by architecture a ample branch there to accomplish electric cartage for that market.
Finally, a abundant EU accomplished is advancing bottomward the pike for Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for its corruption of the ability of its ascendant Android operating system. But the specific anticompetitive amends may be beneath important to tech investors than the action administration it reflects in European regulation.
A abounding archetype follows the video.
This video was recorded on July 11, 2018.
Mac Greer: It’s Wednesday, July 11th. Welcome to Bazaar Foolery! I’m Mac Greer. Joining me in flat is the one and only, Motley Fool analyst, Aaron Bush. Aaron, it’s aloof you and me. How are you activity appropriate now?
Aaron Bush: I’m activity special.
Greer: Are you activity special?
Bush: I’m absolutely animated to be here. Acknowledgment for accepting me!
Greer: That’s good. It’s abundant to accept you here. So, if you would accept to sum it up in one chat would that be appropriate or anxiety, you don’t absolutely apperceive what to expect. How would you characterize it?
Bush: I’m consistently aflame to be here.
Greer: Well, I’m aflame because we accept a lot of agitative belief here. A little after in the show, we’re going to allocution about Elon Musk and Tesla going to China. Some big account there. And then, Google seems to get in a lot of agitation in the E.U., aback it comes to Europe. We’re activity to allocution about the latest kerfuffle there, and what it may or may not beggarly for investors.
But I appetite to activate with the latest wheeling and ambidextrous in the apple of media and entertainment. 21st Century Fox hasagreed to by Britain’s Sky TV in a accord account Sky at about $32.5 billion. Sky is paid television, for those who don’t follow the company. That action trumps a battling offer from Comcast. This all happens, Aaron, adjoin this accomplishments of Disney and Comcast battling it out over most of Fox’s assets, as well. We accept a lot of wheeling and ambidextrous in media and entertainment. What do you think?
Bush: It’s an absolute frenzy, that’s for sure. Fox already owns 39% of Sky, so they’re acquiring to bid the actual 61% that they don’t own appropriate now. I anticipate what’s amazing out of all of this is, the behest for Sky, for this accurate deal, started aback in 2016, and it keeps on actuality a back-and-forth amid Fox and Comcast and regulators. Now, if you attending at Sky today, it’s trading at an 80% exceptional to aback the behest aboriginal started, which is crazy. What that tells me is that these big players trying to consolidate the space, they’re affectionate of atrocious to, a little bit.
Greer: We were talking about this afore the taping, does this agony appear from Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)? Netflix has had such an absurd run. Is this all in acknowledgment to this abhorrence of what Netflix is and could become?
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Bush: I absolutely anticipate that’s a allotment of it. Essentially, this is a action for who will own the agreeable and administration that will ascertain the abutting decade. I anticipate what Netflix accepted is that scale is abnormally important. All of these ample companies, even admitting they’re ample on their own, and they do other things besides aloof agreeable and distribution, but they’re realizing that to break at aiguille relevance, to be allusive to everyone, to own the chump relationship, have people pay lots of absorption to them, they accept to pay up a accomplished lot added than they would accept accepted alike two years ago. But they’re accomplishing it, which is crazy, in my opinion.
Greer: Against that backdrop, who do you see as the bigger winners and the bigger losers with all this wheeling and dealing?
Bush: The bigger winners are whoever is accepting acquired. Sky, for example, is an accessible winner. Appropriate now, Sky’s bazaar cap is trading aloft what Fox is offering, which tells me that they’re assured Comcast to appear aback again. Really, these companies that are accounted to accept admired assets, those are the winners, at atomic for the short-term.
In my assessment — this ability be arguable — the losers are whoever is affairs them. The acumen is because they’re not prioritizing price, and they’re aloof aggravating to break relevant. Relevancy is important, but if you accumulate on adopting the price, afresh you’re raising the barrier for authoritative these assets absolutely be worthwhile to you. It becomes harder and harder to absolve price.
As all these companies accumulate on demography on debt, they accumulate on aggravating to force their balance bedding to accomplish this work, attractive for synergies and all that acceptable stuff, it’ll become harder and harder. I absolutely appearance this as, whoever is accepting acquired today is burglary the allotment from the investors in these beyond companies in the future.
Greer: That reminds me, on our contempo cruise to Philadelphia, we were part of a administration development accumulation here. We met with Jack Bogle, architect of Vanguard. He had this abundant quote. He said, “Trees don’t abound to the sky.”
Bush: They don’t.
Greer: But it seems like Netflix has been growing to the sky.
Bush: Maybe Netflix is not a tree. Maybe it’s a building or something, and everyone abroad is the tree. No, Netflix is arena a altered game. I anticipate this is abnormally important to understand. All of these companies, the Foxes and Disneys, they saw what Netflix achieved. All of these moves are their way of aggravating to bout Netflix in some way.
I anticipate that’s important. The approaching is absolutely agenda commitment of huge bundles of content, owning the chump relationship, scale is important. But what I anticipate they’re accomplishing is aggravating to accession who Netflix is today, aback Netflix is arena at a accomplished nother level, and is trying to become what Netflix will be tomorrow, which is article absolutely different.
Greer: Let’s wrap this up. Let me accord you some names actuality and see if any of these names jump out at you. Aback you ascertain this amplitude broadly, aback we’re talking about media and entertainment, we’re talking Netflix, of course, we’re talking Disney, Netflix, Comcast, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet, Apple, we could go on — any of those names jump out at you?
Bush: I anticipate that Alphabet, Amazon and Netflix are still the most interesting. Alphabet owns YouTube. They’re arena a absolutely altered blazon of ball game. Amazon, affectionate of agnate to Alphabet in the faculty that they accept Twitch. I think, if you look at bodies adage the best tech acquisitions of all time accept been Instagram and YouTube, maybe booking.com, Twitch is the abutting one. I anticipate Twitch is apparently activity to be account $100 billion at some point for Amazon. Amazon will accept that. They’ll additionally accept Prime, which is agnate to Netflix.
I do anticipate Netflix and Amazon will have a appealing arresting approaching that a lot of bodies don’t expect. I anticipate Amazon recognizes that the approaching of them — right now, they accept 125 actor subscribers. One day, that’ll be 400 or 500 million. What can you do aback you accept bisected a billion subscribers? You can do a accomplished lot more. [laughs]
There will be abbreviating allotment to the spending that they accept on accustomed content. Big sports rights will be up in the abutting decade. They’re apparently activity to be able to pay up for that more than added players. The approaching of video amateur is streaming. And billow infrastructure, who does that bigger than Netflix? I think Netflix, there’s hidden optionality there. For these newer, internet-native entertainment companies, they accept hidden optionality that these massive, old-school behemoths aren’t acrimonious up on yet.
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Greer: Let’s move on and allocution some Tesla. Tesla is aperture its aboriginal factory outside of the United States. On Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk accomplished an acceding with the Shanghai government to accessible a branch in China — a branch with the accommodation to body 500,000 cars a year. Aaron, what does it beggarly for Tesla?
Bush: China is a absolutely important bazaar for Tesla. It’s their additional bigger bazaar alfresco of the U.S. Last year, they awash 17,000 cars there. Given the sheer population admeasurement of China, and their efforts through adjustment to accomplish electric cartage added prominent, I anticipate China presents huge upside for Tesla if they can get it right. I’m aflame to see them advancing in here.
The second allotment of it is added political. Last Friday, auto acceptation tariffs to China were aloft to 40%. If you’re aggravating to advertise a U.S. car in China, it’s a 40% tariff. Tesla has already had to accession prices 20%, but prices for cars aren’t that inelastic. A way to get about the terrible appraisement and what they accept to accord up to the government, they’re aloof activity to go beeline to China and body there.
What’s interesting about this to me is that best companies, manufacturers, ball companies, whoever, they go in with collective ventures, they partner with Chinese companies that can advice them cross the political amnion and body added accurately for that region. Tesla is activity it alone. There’s some accident in that. They do have, Tencent owns 5% of Tesla. But, if all goes well, they will own 100% of the acquirement that comes from China, which could be a big deal.
Greer: Aaron, I don’t apperceive if there’s a aggregation that elicits stronger opinions — bull, buck — than Tesla. I’m curious, aback you attending at Tesla command large, what’s your bigger catechism activity forward?
Bush: I anticipate the bigger catechism about them is, will they be able to accession basic in an investor-friendly way? For example, adopting these new accomplishment accessories is going to booty a ton of money. It’s apparently abandoned activity to be three or four years from now that they absolutely alpha bearing in a meaningful way. But it’ll amount a billion dollars to get there.
There’s more going on than just this one factory. Tesla already has a lot of debt. All of these opportunities are fascinating. No one doing a bigger job advancing them than Tesla. But, the accounting, the antithesis area issues, I anticipate that could affectation absolute issues. I don’t absolutely know. I could see it activity either way. I ambition I had a stronger opinion. But, that’s definitely what has me a little batty appropriate now.
Greer: Let’s move over to Europe and allocution about the E.U. The E.U.’s antitrust analysis is reportedly advancing addition multibillion dollar accomplished adjoin Alphabet, Google’s parent company. Aaron, this accomplished reportedly is for Google illegally abusing the ascendancy of its Android operating system. When I looked at shares of Alphabet today, they were up slightly.
So, once again, investors assume to absolve it off. I’m a actor in Alphabet, you’re a actor in Alphabet. Is this aloof added accomplishments noise, or should we be worried?
Bush: I think, for now, it might be accomplishments babble for Alphabet. It’s a “Congratulations, you’re a monopoly, here’s a bang on the wrist, the best we can do to accumulate you from becoming alike added of a monopoly.” But it still doesn’t change the actuality that their belvedere is cool dominant. The fine, even admitting it’s in the billions, it’s not a huge accord for them. It does aching them. But what’s absolutely absorbing to me about this move, not abandoned this move but the fact that it’s one in a alternation of moves, not abandoned adjoin Alphabet but all companies at large, I anticipate it says bigger things about the accompaniment of technology and Europe and the future, what that could authority for the approaching there.
Greer: What is the bigger thing? Are you accepting at the accomplished abstraction of addition — if you accept a aggregation you’re attractive to start, afresh you’re activity to go about added than the E.U.?
Bush: I assumption one allotment is that these regulations do aching ample companies, but they aching abate companies alike more. That’s tech companies, that’s non-tech companies. Also, it’s harder to be a tech aggregation in Europe. Moves like this are one piece of evidence. GDPR is addition allotment of evidence. It ability ultimately be good for people, E.U. citizens, but the amount associated with it is huge for ample companies, and borderline abhorrent for abate companies.
Further aloofness regulations, abstracts portability measures, absorb directives, there keeps on actuality added and added of these things that are advised to help customers, but they accept adventitious consequences. I saw a abstraction maybe a anniversary or two ago that was saying, where are the approaching unicorns activity to appear from? Naturally, there were a lot of them that bodies predicted were activity to appear from the U.S.
Greer: Define a unicorn, for addition who doesn’t apperceive that term.
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Bush: A start-up that becomes $1 billion.
Greer: Not a horse with a horn on his head.
Bush: No. A start-up that alcove huge scale. It’s about adage that lots of them are activity to appear from the U.S. A lot added than bodies anticipate will appear from China. Maybe some will appear from India. But people were admiration one or zero coming from Europe. That’s because of regulations like this.
When I attending at Europe, I’m not that optimistic about the approaching of technology companies there. I anticipate the government can change things, but I don’t apperceive if they will. Seeing this unfold with Alphabet, this isn’t a big accord for them, but it credibility to what could be a actual big accord for anybody abroad in the future.
Greer: As we blanket up this story, you were talking about unicorns, how about one clandestine aggregation that you’re aflame about, or at atomic that’s on your alarm appropriate now?
Bush: Sure. I run our crypto service here, so I’m attractive at all sorts of awe-inspiring things that are advancing up. To point to one aggregation that had me aflame over the accomplished year is a aggregation alleged Blockstack. They aloft adventure money. Essentially, what they’re aggravating to do is become a decentralized App Store. If you look at Apple, for example, they booty a cut of every transaction. What if you could accept an App Store that isn’t run by a company, area the governance over time gets broadcast to a larger community? The association lets you accumulate 100% of the revenue, and it facilitates decentralized applications that advice rewire the way the internet works.
Who gets to own the abstracts — companies or the individual? What does that mean? There are a lot of absolutely absorbing implications to the way that the internet is transforming for the future, and area amount can be accrued. This is a aggregation that will apparently barrage a badge anon and become accessible in that sense. I anticipate investors should be attractive at added of these types of companies. I’m personally aflame to see this and others like it abide to accomplish progress.
Greer: And the name is Blockstack?
Bush: Yeah, Blockstack.
Greer: We have to blanket up with my arid island question, totally unfair, totally arbitrary, don’t advance this way at home. With all that actuality said, let’s talk about some of the stocks. If you’re on a arid island and you accept to own one of these for the abutting bristles years: 21st Century Fox, Comcast, Disney, Tesla, Alphabet.
Bush: Alphabet. Search is still ramping up. Their cartel is not activity abroad anytime soon, not in the abutting bristles years. YouTube is actual underrated. They’re producing so abundant cash, I’m abiding they’ll accomplish added value-accruing moves.
Greer: OK. Aaron Bush, acknowledgment for abutting me!
Bush: Thank you!
Greer: I appetite to accord a bark out to our Motley Fool Podcast Shop, lots of abundant Motley Fool swag. Shirts, coffee mugs, caps. That’s shop.fool.com. If you accept any questions, if you accept any comments, you can consistently email us at email@example.com. Thanks, as always, for abutting us.
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Remember that The Motley Fool may accept academic recommendations for or against, so don’t buy or advertise stocks based alone on what you hear. People on the appearance may accept interests in the stocks we allocution about. That’s it for this copy of Bazaar Foolery. The appearance is alloyed by Dan Boyd. I’m Mac Greer. Acknowledgment for listening! We’ll see you tomorrow!
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